GLOBAL EQUITY INDICES
We anticipated last Friday to be negative but market went opposite. You are requested to be alert as market traded positive on a negative day.
Today, after change of position of Sun – a trend reversal shall be observed which should initiate negativity in market. Next day, it is the banking policy of Japan’s central bank – its impact has potentials to drive equities to lower levels. Till Wednesday, trend shall be negative.
On Wednesday, it is the FOMC meeting. After Janet Yelen’s speech, market is bound to recover but we are not very sure. Other after-effect on Thursday (post FOMC) could be a negative rally. If market declines on Thursday, it shall recover on Friday. If market moves up after FOMC on Thursday, it shall decline on Friday.
The most considerable weakness is expected around last week of March 2016. This shall continue till mid-April 2016.
Next week’s Monday also seems to be negative for the market.
Hold short position in S&P500 June contract with stop loss 2025 (on closing basis).
In this week, if S&P500 FUT drops to 1975-1960, you could cover short position there.
We had mentioned that Monday would see bullion at higher levels – the current trend confirms our prediction made last week. It is advisable to “sell’ bullion on rise.
You are recommended to short Gold around 1256-1260 for target 1230 by Wednesday and Silver around 15.60-15.65 for target 15.00.
Till Wednesday, bullion shall be negative. Post FOMC, bullion shall recover.
Crude oil shall experience a sharp correction in this week. Make short position in oil with stop loss 39.50 for target 34.00 and below.
NG shall move up till Wednesday. Thursday onwards, profit booking is anticipated.
EUR/USD has made its high last week. For this week, it shall remain in a negative trend. Short EUR/USD with stop loss 1.1250 for target 1.0950.
Hold long position in USD/INR with stop loss 66.80. In this week, it’ll move up to 67.50. If 66.80 is breached, it can drop to 66.50.
Dollar index shall be upward for this week. Long dollar index with stop loss 95.70 for target 97-98.
US TREASURY BONDS
Bonds shall be trading upward till Wednesday. From Thursday, negative trend is indicated.
You may long US 10 YEAR Treasury with stop loss 2.01 and US 30 YEAR Treasury with stop loss 2.80.
To hedge this position, you may short US 5 YEAR Treasury.
Indian stock market
Short Nifty Fut with stop loss 7600 (on closing basis) and Bank Nifty with stop loss 15600 (on closing basis).
Nifty may drop to 7400 while Bank Nifty may drop below 15000 by Wednesday.
The next Monday is also weak for the Indian market.
A considerable declining move may be seen after 23rd March 2016 – which may drive Nifty below 7000 in the next 10 days.