Global Stock Indices
Last week, S&P500 made a low of 2082 and then closed at 2093. On Monday, positive trend is expected. For once by Tuesday, it can shoot up-to 2120. On Tuesday-Wednesday, volatility is expected. On Thursday, declining trend is expected. 2080 can be breached for once. It can dip to 2060.
On Friday, closing shall be positive. It may recover back to the level of 2100-2120.
Strategy: Close long position and build short position in S&P500 FUT @ 2120. You can cover this short position around Thursday’s closing. You can enter in long position here.
By Friday’s closing, you should close your long position and enter into short position as in next week, a highly bearish trend is expected (especially on Monday, 16th).
Monday and Tuesday of previous week were bearish as expected. However, the expected bounce back on 4th and 5th didn’t come up. Price of bullion remained range bound and couldn’t come up.
On Friday, post NON-FARM PAYROLL announcement, bullion breached major support levels (Gold breached 1100 and dropped down to 1084 & closed at 1089 | Silver made a low of 14.68 & closed at 14.72). Venus-Rahu conjunction caused the major fall in price of bullion last week.
In this week, it is the Mars-Rahu conjunction, which will boost the price of gold and silver.
However on Monday, bullion may take a slight dip and then bounce back.
If the level of 1080 is breached, Gold can drop to 1070. If a dip is seen in Silver, it may drop to 14.50.
On Tuesday, bullion shall continue in positive pattern.
For Monday-Tuesday, we aren’t very sure.
From Wednesday, bullion is sure to move up.
12th November seems a bullish day. This positivity shall continue till Friday.
For next week as well, this bullishness may continue.
On 17th November 2015, a highly bullish trend is expected in price of bullion.
Overall opinion: Bullion can witness a big up move till 17th November.
Hence, it is advisable to skip short position at lower levels.
On 18th, market may reverse and bullion may end up the negative side of trend.
Bullion shall then enter a bearish cycle which may continue till 27th.
Note: In current week (9th to 13th November 2015): we are expecting a more bullish trend in Silver with respect to Gold. Wait for 17th to make short position at higher level.
USD/INR shall make a top this Monday.
Tuesday onwards, trend shall reverse for USD/INR.
On Monday, 66.50 can be touched by USD/INR. It is advisable to book profit in long position and enter into short position with stop loss 67.
By Friday, it shall drop to 65.50-65.20.
Coming to Bihar elections, our analysis was slightly misinterpreted in the result. We had taken Nitish Kumar’s horoscope into consideration, which seemed to be weak.
It should be noted that RJD (80)+ JDU (71)s alliance has emerged as the victorious alliance with more share coming from Lalu Prasad Yadav . This shall deter Nitish Kumar from independent action in interest of Bihar’s development. In next 6-12 months, it will be clearly visible how effectively this alliance serves the purpose as Bihar’s ruling government.
Since, Saturn is in Scorpio. Result of elections has not been in favor of Mr. Modi. This shall last till 2017 and Saturn may affect the results of elections.
INDIAN STOCK MARKET
Indian market shall open gap down with effect of Bihar’s election results. Around 10.00 HRS IST, market may recover. It could enter positive trend. From 13.30 HRS to 15.00 HRS IST, it could decline.
And in the last 1 hour of market, recovery is expected.
On Tuesday, mixed to positive trend is expected.
Wednesday-Thursday are closed on occasion of Diwali.
On Friday, market can witness bearishness.
If NIFTY FUT drops below 7950, it can drop to 7880-7850. Market shall take U turn from 10.00 HRS IST. If BANK NIFTY drops below 16900, it can drop to 16700-16500.
NIFTY FUT: 7850-7990
BANK NIFTY: 16800-17200
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