Major change in trend on 23rd / 24th September 2014

Stock Markets Around the globe

Global indices had a very good time since 8th August 2014. A one way bullish trend was observed, which continued till 19th September 2014.

From this week, volatility index shall rise for stock market. Overall, the market shall experience weakness at higher levels (till 15th October 2014).  Weakness shall be more concentrated for banking and financial stocks.

After 15th October 2014, market shall again be positive with ups and downs.

From 3rd November 2014, market shall enter a one sided bull trend. In the month of November 2014, market shall witness a very big hike. This shall continue for December as well.

Next year, till mid Feb (2015), this bullishness shall last.

For the time till 15th October 2014, S&P500 can drop to 1,960 (DEC FUT). By Dec end, S&P500 is expected to cross 2,100.

Intra-Week Prediction for this week:

On 22nd, both side swing is expected. Ultimately, weakness would be seen at closing.

On Tuesday, market shall be volatile.

On Wednesday, weakness shall be observed.

On Thursday, volatile to mix trend is expected.

On Friday, market shall be positive.

Trend for Monday

Weak opening is indicated for Asian market. Recovery to be followed and then weakness is expected at closing hour.

PRECIOUS METALS

Last week, Gold and Silver experienced a sharp correction. In this week, on 23rd / 24th, bullion is expected to bottom out.

From 24th– 25th, market shall be in recovery mode.

From 29th, recovery shall increase.

From 4th October 2014, market shall start trading in a bullish trend which shall continue till 18th/19th October 2014.

Intra-week Predictions:

–        22nd Sept 2014: Both side swing is expected.  Trend is expected to be weak.

–        23rd Sept 2014: volatile to bearish trend is expected.

–        24th Sept 2014: trend shall be volatile to positive.

–        25th Sept 2014: volatile to positive.

–        26h Sept 2014: Range bound trend is expected.

–        29th Sept 2014: Shall be positive for next week.

If Gold breaches 1,212, then it may drop to 1,180. At 1,180 is a big support.

If Silver breaches 17.70, then it may drop to 17.40 & below.

You should maintain “sell on rise” till 23rd Sept 2014.

From 24th, you are advised to enter buying position.

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Copper shall bottom out on 23rd September 2014.

On 22nd – 23rd, volatile to weak trend is expected.

From 24th, bullishness shall be observed, which shall continue till mid-October. 8 to 10 % upward move could be observed in the said time frame. 

CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil shall bottom out on 23rd September 2014.

From 24th, bullishness shall be observed, which would continue till mid-Oct 2014.

Crude can cross $110/bbl.

NATURAL GAS

NG shall follow the same trend as Oil.

From 24th September to mid-October, 8-10% of rise shall be seen.

CURRENCIES

EURO

EUR/USD to bottom out on 23rd September.

From 24th, it shall enter positivity.

This bullishness shall continue till mid-October 2014.

EUR/USD could cross 1.300.

INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)

USD/INR shall be range-bound for the day.

In next week, positive trend is expected.

USD/INR shall move up from 24th Sept.

DOLLAR INDEX

Dollar Index shall be strong on 22nd and 23rd Sept. From 24th Sept, sharp correction shall be observed, which would continue till mid-October.

It can break 83.00.

US 10 YR-TREASURY BOND

On Monday and Tuesday, mix trend is expected. From 24th, it shall tend to move upward. It shall remain positive till mid-October’14. 2.40 could be breached in this time period.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET

Indian market shall have weak opening today. And then, recovery would be observed from 11.00 HRS IST. It shall have a sharp recovery till 14.15 HRS IST.

And then, sharp decline shall be observed.

Closing could be negative.

On Tuesday, mix trend is expected.

On 24th, bearish trend is expected.

On 25th, mixed trend shall be observed; closing is expected to be flat.

On 26th, mixed trend shall be observed; closing is expected to be positive.

Banking, Steel and Oil related stocks would experience weakness in coming days.

Bank Nifty can break 15,500 by mid October 2014.

Nifty can break 7,800 by mid October 2014.

Your strategy should be to “short” indices on rise.

TRADING RANGE:

n  NIFTY FUT:8,150-8,050

n  BANK NIFTY:16,300-16,050

This week is positive for following stocks (BUY ON DIPS):

–        TCS

–        TECH MAHINDRA

–        INFOSYS

–        MINDTREE

–        HEXAWARE

–        TATA MOTORS

–        M&M

–        HERO MOTORS

–        MARUTI

–        BATA

–        RANBAXY

–        DIVIS LAB

–        AUROBINDO PHARMA

–        DR. REDDY

–        ARVIND

–        RAYMOND

–        CENTURY TEXTILE

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