The effect of US Jobs data demystified

Global Equity Indices

Today, the job data has to be announced in US market. It is expected that the job data shall be negative for stock market. However, if the opposite happens then too, market will move to negative direction in next week probably due to phobia of hike in interest rate. Hence, it is advisable to maintain the strategy of “sell on rise”. If you’ve booked profit in short position then positional traders shall short S&P500 FUT 50% around 2166-2168 and rest 50% around 2175-2180. You are advised to hold this position until 16th September 2016. On 16th, it is the lunar eclipse which will be negative for the market. In next week, Gold and silver mining stocks (CLF, ABX) shall move up – this positive trend shall continue till 14th September 2016. You may long CLF, ABX at lower levels.

By 16th September, S&P500 FUT can drop to 2120 or lower. A high of 2192 had been made recently. Market behaved in the previous trading session as per our expectation with S&P500 making a low of 2155.

It is advisable to build a STBT in Heng Seng Index.

Last day, you were advised to book profit in S&P500 around 2157.

The short position made in APPLE @ 109.50 was booked in profit at 105.80.

On Monday, market shall be closed in US due to the labor’s day – and hence it is going to be a long weekend. Enjoy!

TODAY’S TRADING RANGE: * Sept contract

  • DOW (FUT): 18460-18280
  • S&P 500 (FUT): 2175-2140
  • NASDAQ (FUT): 4795-4740
  • FTSE (FUT): 6810-6720
  • CAC(FUT): 4500-4400
  • DAX(FUT): 10650-10450
  • AEX(AUG FUT): 458-445
  • HENG SENG(FUT): 23200-22750

PRECIOUS METALS

Last day, bullion behaved in positive trend as per the prediction in daily newsletter. Gold Dec Fut made a high of 1318 while Silver Dec Fut made a high of 19.00.

Today as well, as per astrology – post US opening, bullion shall move up. The job data shall be supportive for precious metals. You are advised to buy 50% GOLD & SILVER before announcement.

For the rest 50%, you should wait for closing even if bullion turns negative post announcement as next week is positive for precious metals.

This positivity shall continue till 14th September 2016. In this time frame, Gold can cross 1360 while Silver can cross 20.50. So even if bullion declines today, you must hold 50% position for next week.

TRADING RANGE:

  • GOLD (DEC): 1305-1328
  • SILVER (SEPT): 18.60-19.50

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Hold position in Copper until 18th September 2016.

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil shall be positive in next week. You are advised to maintain the strategy of “BUY ON DIPS”.  Positional traders shall long Crude around 43.50-43.70 for target 49-52.

NG

Sell NG on rise.

TRADING RANGE

  • CRUDE (Oct): 45.40-45.20
  • NG: 2.85-2.75

CURRENCY PAIRS

EURO

You were advised to book profit in EUR/USD @ 1.1190. If it drops then you may long EUR/USD around 1.1140-1.1160. Next week seems to be really positive for EURO.

USD/INR

It is a great opportunity for positional traders to add long position in USD/INR at lower levels (66.70-66.80) and hold this position until 16th September 2016.  In the said timeframe, a good profit is indicated.

All of a sudden, USD/INR might turn highly bullish which may drive it to 67.50-68.00.

DOLLAR INDEX

Dollar index’s top has been made. It is expected to decline from today.     However even if dollar index moves up then build short position at higher level as in next week, trend is negative.

It can drop below 95 by 14th of the month.

TRADING RANGE:

  • EUR/USD: 1.1160-1.1240
  • USD/INR: 66.80-67.20
  • DOLLAR INDEX: 96.00-95.30

US Treasury Bonds

You are advised to buy treasury bonds and hold until 15th September 2016.

TRADING RANGE:

  • US 10 YEAR: 1.62-1.52
  • US 30 YEAR: 2.28-2.18

INDIAN STOCK MARKET

Indian market’s top at monthly chart has been made. Market is ready for a healthy correction. You are advised to maintain “sell on rise” strategy.

By 15th or 16th September 2016, Nifty Fut can drop to 8400 or lower while Bank Nifty can drop to 18800 or lower.

TRADING RANGE:

-NIFTY SEP FUT: 8880-8760

-BANK NIFTY SEP: 19950-19700

INTRADAY BUY:

  • PATEL ENGINEERING
  • TVS MOTORS
  • DELTA CORP

SELL at higher level:

  • SBI S/L 265 TGT 230 & BELOW
  • YES BANK S/L 1390 TGT 1280 & BELOW
  • TATA STEEL S/L 385
  • IDEA S/L 86
  • COAL INDIA S/L 343 TGT 330 & BELOW

You are advised to buy put options in Nifty for target 8600 and Bank Nifty for target 19000 (Sept contract).

 

If you are interested in subscribing to daily newsletter / live trading calls, please write to astrodunia@gmail.com.

 

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