NDA may get 220-250 seats, Influence of Modi on Indian market, View on Global Equity, Commodities

Stock Markets Around the globe

As said in previous letter, US market faced a sharp decline. S&P500 made a low of 1,860. This weakness shall continue with volatility.

On Monday, sharp correction is expected in S&P500, which may last till 20^th May 2014.

If S&P500 breaks 1,855 then can drop down to 1,805.

You should again note that Monday shall be bearish for major global stock indexes.

Hold 50% short position and short S&P500 at higher level.

Asian market can have gap down opening on Monday.

TRADING RANGE:

-DOW FUT: 16,460-16,380

-S&P500 FUT: 1,878-1,855

-NASDAQ FUT: 3,585-3,520

-FTSE FUT: 6,870-6,780

-CAC FUT : 4,455-4,390

– DAX FUT: 9,720-9,620

-AEX FUT: 401.00-398.00 {On Monday, sharp decline is possible. 3.98 was touched last day. At higher levels, again short AEX for Monday}

– HANG SENG:22,650-22,250 {Hold short position for Monday}

– NIFTY SPOT:7,170-7,060 & BELOW

PRECIOUS METALS

Today, bullion is expected to trade in positive trend.

Bullion shall remain overall supportive till 20^th May 2014. And from 21^st, a sharp correction may be observed in price of gold and silver.

As soon as gold touches 1,304-1,309 and Silver touches 19.95, you should book 100% profit in long position.

TRADING RANGE:

–          GOLD :  1,288-1,309 AND ABOVE

–          SILVER:19.30-19.95

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Copper shall be positive for the day.

Buy Copper at lower level.

Trading Range:

–          COPPER:3.14-3.17

ENERGY PRODUCTS

CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil shall be positive for the day.

This positivity shall remain for next week as well.

NATURAL GAS

NG had a U turn from lower levels (4.30), the previous trading session.

This positive trend shall continue for next week.

Trading Range:

-CRUDE: 101.20-102.60

-NG: 4.40-4.50
CURRENCIES

EURO

Last day, EUR/USD had a u turn from 1.3660. We expect EUR/USD to touch or even cross 1.3715.

INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)

USD/INR shall climb up from today and shall remain positive for next week.

DOLLAR INDEX

Dollar Index made a high of 80.30 last day.

In next week, dollar index shall drop to 79.70.

You are advised to hold short position for next week.

TRADING RANGE:

– EUR/USD: 1.3680-1.3760

-USD/INR(SPOT): 59.20-59.80

-DOLLAR INDEX: 80.20-79.90

US TREASURY BOND

Bonds went unexpectedly upward. However, correction has been seen from late US hours.

We expect the downside move to continue for next week.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET

Today, it’s the Lok Sabha elections’ result.

Market will be highly volatile.

However, market shall have a U turn from today.

Trend reversal would be observed.

On Monday as well, sharp correction is possible.

As per astrology, NDA may get near about 220-250 seats. Narendra Modi may be the Prime Minister of new government. However, owing to a small margin from majority, NDA may have to compromise.

Jayalalita, Mamta Banerjee, Mayawati- with one of theirs’ support, would make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister of Republic of India.

This compromise would be unexpected.

Results may be much surprising from exit polls aired on various media channels.

This shall have a negative impact on the market till 20^th May 2014.

As per astrology, we feel that if NDA gets less than 240 seats, market may have a sharp decline.

Technical Levels for NIFTY FUT:

ABOVE 7,180 – 7,265+

BELOW 7,110- 7,022 & BELOW

Technical Levels for BANK NIFTY:
ABOVE 14,320  – 14,480+

BELOW 14,220- 14,045 & BELOW