How Our January Letter Timed the US–Iran Escalation and the Equity Downturn

The screenshot above is taken from Page 7 of the Annual Letter 2026, released in January. In that edition, we precisely identified the timing of the US-Iran war after 23 February 2026; well before the conflict materialised in headlines and geopolitical risk indexes. This was a forward-looking call, rooted in our macro-cyclical and geopolitical framework, not a retroactive explanation.

Our strategic view remains unchanged: we expect elevated market volatility through 25 March 2026, with a pronounced skew toward meaningful downside risk across global equity benchmarks. Current dynamics reflect the kind of regime shift that demands tactical risk management, not passive exposure.

Subscribers to our live signals acted on this view ahead of major public moves. We generated short recommendations on key indices at levels including:

• S&P (cash) @ 6945
• Dow (cash) @ 49500
• Russell (cash) @ 2675
• Nasdaq @ 25250

Since those levels, markets have moved lower, validating our tactical bias.

For institutional investors managing diversified portfolios, identifying turning points before consensus can significantly impact returns. This becomes even more important when geopolitical events align with broader market cycles.

In phases like this, timing and disciplined execution matter. Markets adjust quickly to new risks, and waiting for delayed updates often means entering after the opportunity has passed. In our approach, trend direction is guided by structured geopolitical and macro timing — not by headlines.

If you are allocating capital across risk assets, now is the time to consider tactical defensive positioning and volatility management with live signals.