29 July 2019: Weekly view on stocks, commodities and bonds

Planetary conditions this week:

The moon shall be in Gemini-Cancer-Leo for the week. On 30^th July, Mercury will move from Cancer to Gemini in retrograde motion while Sun will form a square with Uranus. On 31^st July, it is the New Moon. On 1^st August, Mercury will turn direct. On 4^th August, it’ll enter Cancer. On 11^th August, Jupiter will turn direct. On 12^th August, Uranus will retrograde.

GLOBAL STOCK INDICES

The week ahead is eventful. On 31^st July, US-China talks in context with trade war will be in focus along with FOMC announcement (in which we are expecting an interest rate cut of 0.25%). The statement will be dovish for the market. The market may remain highly volatile for the week. Today, the market may witness some weakness. In the next session, an uptrend is indicated. On Wednesday, before FOMC, weakness is possible. Post FOMC, market will climb up. On 1^st August, an uptrend is expected. On 2^nd, it is non-farm payroll announcement wherein market may again witness a correction. On 5^th, the market may start at lower levels. From a short/medium-term perspective, the month of August 2019 is positive for equities. S&P500 may move up to 3080-3095. With S/L 3031, hold short in S&P500. Around 3000-3005, cover short position and enter into 50% long position. Remaining long position to be made around 2980. The target for this long position will be 3030-3050. S&P500 has support at 2998 and resistance at 3031-3036.

PRECIOUS METALS

Bullion shall continue with heavy volatility in the week ahead. Gold August contract has support at 1400-1398 and resistance at 1428. Silver September contract has support at 16.20 and resistance at 16.65.

For today, positivity is indicated. In the next session, the mixed trend is possible. On Wednesday, a downtrend is possible. After FOMC, bullion may move up. On 1^st August 2019, profit booking may be observed at higher levels. On 2^nd August 2019, it may again move up after non-farm payroll announcement. Overall, in the month of August 2019, we are bullish on Gold and Silver. Long position in Gold is advised – 50% @ 1415 & 50% @ 1400 with S/L 1390 for target 1440-1465. Long Silver – 50% @ 16.40 and 50% @ 16.20 with S/L 15.95 for target 16.65-16.75.

The weekly target for Gold is 1465-1475.

For MCX Traders: Gold August contract has support at 34400 and resistance at 35200.

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Stay away from Copper for two sessions as the trend is uncertain. Before FOMC, you can long Copper.

ENERGY PRODUCTS

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil may continue in negativity till next session. From Wednesday, it’ll start moving in a positive direction. In August, it’ll move up to $65/bbl. Wait for Wednesday to accumulate long in crude. It has resistance at 58 and support at 55.

NATURAL GAS

Continue holding long in NG. In the month of August 2019, it’ll move up to 2.50 or higher.

CURRENCIES

EURO (EUR/USD)

EUR/USD has support at 1.1100 and resistance at 1.1150. For today and tomorrow, the mixed trend is indicated. On Wednesday after FOMC, it’ll move upward.

POUND (GBP/USD)

For today and tomorrow, the trend is uncertain/mixed. After FOMC on Wednesday, GBP/USD will move in a positive direction. It has support at 1.2300 and resistance at 1.2450.

YEN (USD/JPY)

Add short in USD/JPY at 109.00.

INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)

Long USD/INR at the lower level.

DOLLAR INDEX

It shall trade mixed for today and tomorrow. After the FOMC announcement, it’ll decline. It may breach 96.

US TREASURY BONDS

US 30 Year T-Bond:
US 30 Y T-Bond has support at 153 and resistance at 155. It is advised to long US 30 Y T-Bond at the lower level. After FOMC, it’ll move in a positive direction.

Yield:

Short yield (US 10 Y & US 30 Y ) at a higher level.

CRYPTO-CURRENCY

Hold long in BTC/USD with S/L 8800. Add 50% BTC/USD at CMP (9600).

INDIAN STOCK MARKET

Indian market closed positive on Friday. In the week ahead, volatility will be observed due to globally significant events. For today and tomorrow, the mixed trend is anticipated. From Wednesday, the market will move in a positive direction. Considerable positivity will be seen from 5^th August 2019. As per astrology, more of the positive trend to be visible from 9^th August 2019. Before August expiry, Nifty may move up to 11700-11800. It will not be surprising even if it hits 12000.

Nifty has support at 11200 and resistance at 11400. If 11200 is breached then it may drop down to 11100 on the lower side. We don’t see the market going any lower.

On 1^st August 2019, Mercury will turn direct. There onwards, the market will have a clear trend of positivity.

Intraday perspective: From 10.50 to 12.50 HRS, the market may trade positive. From 12.50 HRS to closing, mixed to a slightly negative trend is possible.