29th February 2016: Part of weekly newsletter

GLOBAL EQUITY INDICES

The month of March 2016 is highly bearish for equity market (with volatility). This bearishness shall end on 25th March 2016 and a positive trend for short term may be observed.

Last week, S&P500 FUT made a low of 1888. Around 1890, you were advised to long and it made a high of 1965. It closed at 1942.

Trend for this week:

Monday shall be negative. S&p500 can drop to 1920-1900. From Tuesday, it shall trade in upward mode. It shall remain upward till Wednesday. Due to Scorpio Moon on Tuesday-Wednesday, trend may prove to be uncertain.

On Thursday and Friday, negative trend is anticipated.

If trend between Tuesday and Wednesday proves to be positive, it’ll retest last week’s high.

Thursday and Friday shall be negative for market. Friday shall be more bearish. S&P500 can drop below 1900.

Next week shall be more bearish. It may retest 1800.

European market shall be negative on Monday and recover on Tuesday-Wednesday. It shall again turn negative on Thursday-Friday.

Asian market shall be negative on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday onwards, recovery is anticipated. Thursday-Friday shall again be bearish.

Next week shall be highly bearish for European and Asian market.

Highlights of last week

Precious Metal High Low Close
Gold 1255 1216 1223
Silver 15.55 14.72 14.72

 

Trend shall be negative for Gold on Monday – it may drop to the level of 1200. On Tuesday, recovery shall be seen from lower level. On Wednesday, a top shall be made – which may drive it above 1250. On Thursday, correction shall be observed. On Friday before non-farm payroll announcement, market shall be negative. At the lower level, it may drop to 1190 (+/- $10).

After non-farm payroll announcement, it shall recover and in next week, it may cross 1260.

Silver may drop to 14.50-14.40 in this week and then recover back to 15.50. In next week, it may cross 15.65.

Trading Strategy:

Cover short position in Bullion on Monday. Make long position on Tuesday and hold till Wednesday. On WEDNESDAY, you can book profit and make short position at higher level. You should recover this short position before non-farm announcement on Friday and enter into long position for next week.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET

Indian market shall be highly uncertain and painful for this week. It is advisable to maintain “sell on rise“ strategy. On Monday, market shall be negative owing to the budget.  This trend shall continue for Tuesday. On Wednesday, recovery is indicated. On Thursday-Friday, correction is seen. Next week shall be highly bearish.

In this week, NIFTY may break 6900 while Bank Nifty may break 13500.

Trend is highly bearish till 25th March – Nifty Fut can break 6500 and Bank Nifty can break 12000.

TRADING RANGE:

NIFTY FUT: 7100-6980

BANK NIFTY: 14060-13450

Stocks supportive on Monday (budget session) / BUY ON DIPS:

–          LIC HOUSING

–          HDFC

–          BEML

–          BEL

–          ASTRA MICRO

–          JAIN IRRIGATION

–          UNITED SPIRIT

SELL:

–          TATA STEEL

–          MARUTI

–          TATA MOTORS

–          ITC

–          YES BANK

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